Project intrinsic value forward
Monthly simulation seeded from the latest snapshot (Sep 25, 2026). All math runs live in your browser.
Unit
End IV / share
$349
+167.0% vs today
End BTC price
$185,816
Mkt cap $3.7T · +119.7% · 30% CAGR
End MSTR price
$349
Mkt cap $147.0B · +120.5% vs today
End amplification
40%
Target 40%
Total div paid
$14.6B
Issuance $72.0B
Intrinsic value per share
+167.0%Capital structure projection
Monthly issuance & cumulative dividends
Bitcoin accumulated
+50.2%Bitcoin per share (sats)*
+48.3%*Raw BTC holdings ÷ shares. Does not subtract convertible debt or preferred liquidation value — pure economic exposure per share, not a debt-adjusted IV measure.
Premium metrics: Price/IV vs EV/NAV vs Price/NAV
Price/IV is the share-accretion metric. EV/NAV is the metric Strategy publicly cites as their mNAV. Price/NAV (market cap / BTC NAV) is the common equity-only premium widely quoted by analysts.
Month-by-month detail
| Date | BTC px | BTC held | Cash | Conv debt | Pref | Issuance | Div | IV/sh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | $84.6K | 840,447 | $5.0B | $6.7B | $15.0B | $0.0 | $139.2M | $131 |
| 2026-10-25 | $86.4K | 844,986 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $15.7B | $670.8M | $139.2M | $134 |
| 2026-11-25 | $88.4K | 852,552 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $16.5B | $814.4M | $145.9M | $138 |
| 2026-12-25 | $90.3K | 861,113 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $17.4B | $927.3M | $154.1M | $141 |
| 2027-01-25 | $92.3K | 870,065 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $18.4B | $989.6M | $163.3M | $145 |
| 2027-02-25 | $94.3K | 879,226 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $19.4B | $1.0B | $173.2M | $149 |
| 2027-03-25 | $96.4K | 888,544 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $20.5B | $1.1B | $183.6M | $153 |
| 2027-04-25 | $98.6K | 898,006 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $21.6B | $1.1B | $194.4M | $157 |
| 2027-05-25 | $100.7K | 907,610 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $22.8B | $1.2B | $205.7M | $161 |
| 2027-06-25 | $103.0K | 917,358 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $24.0B | $1.2B | $217.4M | $165 |
| 2027-07-25 | $105.2K | 927,253 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $25.3B | $1.3B | $229.6M | $170 |
| 2027-08-25 | $107.6K | 937,299 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $26.6B | $1.3B | $242.4M | $175 |
| 2027-09-25 | $110.0K | 947,500 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $28.0B | $1.4B | $255.6M | $179 |
| 2027-10-25 | $112.4K | 957,860 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $29.4B | $1.4B | $269.4M | $184 |
| 2027-11-25 | $114.9K | 968,383 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $30.9B | $1.5B | $283.7M | $189 |
| 2027-12-25 | $117.4K | 979,074 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $32.5B | $1.6B | $298.6M | $194 |
| 2028-01-25 | $120.0K | 989,937 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $34.1B | $1.6B | $314.2M | $200 |
| 2028-02-25 | $122.7K | 1,000,977 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $35.8B | $1.7B | $330.3M | $205 |
| 2028-03-25 | $125.4K | 1,012,197 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $37.5B | $1.8B | $347.2M | $211 |
| 2028-04-25 | $128.1K | 1,023,604 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $39.4B | $1.8B | $364.7M | $217 |
| 2028-05-25 | $131.0K | 1,035,201 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $41.3B | $1.9B | $383.0M | $223 |
| 2028-06-25 | $133.9K | 1,046,995 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $43.3B | $2.0B | $402.0M | $229 |
| 2028-07-25 | $136.8K | 1,058,989 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $45.3B | $2.1B | $421.8M | $236 |
| 2028-08-25 | $139.8K | 1,071,189 | $5.1B | $6.7B | $47.5B | $2.1B | $442.4M | $242 |
| 2028-09-25 | $142.9K | 1,090,667 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $50.7B | $3.2B | $463.9M | $248 |
| 2028-10-25 | $146.1K | 1,105,849 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $53.4B | $2.7B | $496.4M | $255 |
| 2028-11-25 | $149.3K | 1,119,637 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $56.0B | $2.6B | $523.5M | $262 |
| 2028-12-25 | $152.6K | 1,133,071 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $58.6B | $2.6B | $549.4M | $270 |
| 2029-01-25 | $156.0K | 1,146,530 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $61.3B | $2.7B | $575.4M | $278 |
| 2029-02-25 | $159.4K | 1,160,155 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $64.1B | $2.8B | $602.1M | $286 |
| 2029-03-25 | $163.0K | 1,174,001 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $66.9B | $2.9B | $629.9M | $294 |
| 2029-04-25 | $166.6K | 1,188,094 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $69.9B | $3.0B | $658.7M | $302 |
| 2029-05-25 | $170.3K | 1,202,446 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $73.1B | $3.1B | $688.8M | $311 |
| 2029-06-25 | $174.0K | 1,217,066 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $76.3B | $3.3B | $720.1M | $320 |
| 2029-07-25 | $177.9K | 1,231,963 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $79.7B | $3.4B | $752.8M | $329 |
| 2029-08-25 | $181.8K | 1,247,145 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $83.3B | $3.5B | $786.8M | $339 |
| 2029-09-25 | $185.8K | 1,262,619 | $5.1B | $5.7B | $87.0B | $3.7B | $822.2M | $349 |
Value-for-value
If you found the content in this page valuable, you can give value-for-value by tipping me some sats with bitcoin lightning by scanning the above qr-code or copying my lightning address: . Thank you!