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MSTR Intrinsic
Bitcoin Standard Era

Methodology

How the intrinsic liquidation value of Strategy (MSTR) is computed each day.

Core formulas

Shares Outstanding method — convertibles are treated as debt at dollar face value:

(BTC value + Cash − Convertible debt face − Σ Preferred liquidation) ÷ Shares outstanding

Fully Diluted method — convertibles are assumed to convert into new shares (no debt subtraction, larger denominator):

(BTC value + Cash − Σ Preferred liquidation) ÷ Diluted shares outstanding

Diluted share count comes from Strategy's published assumed_diluted_shares_outstanding in the historical Purchases dataset.

Per-series preferred liquidation preference

Per the SEC filings of STRF, STRD, STRK, STRC, and STRE, the per-share liquidation preference is the highest of three values:

  1. Stated par — $100 per share (€100 for STRE).
  2. ATM-window price — if the company executed an at-the-market sale of that series during the prior 10 trading days, the last sale price from that day. We infer ATM-sale days by detecting any day where the series' notional increased vs. the prior day, and use the prior day's closing price as a conservative reference.
  3. 10-day rolling average close — the average closing price of the prior 10 trading days (window contracts during the first 10 days of issuance).

The maximum of those three is multiplied by the number of preferred shares outstanding (notional ÷ par) to get that series' total liquidation preference for that day.

STRE — euro-denominated par

STRE's stated par is €100, so the same MAX-of-three logic is applied in euros, then converted to USD using the daily EUR/USD rate (sourced from frankfurter.app). When the FX feed is unavailable for a date, the most recent known rate is used.

Cash

Strategy's daily report does not list cash directly, but it does publish enterprise value and market cap. Cash is derived as:

Cash = Market cap + Convertible debt + Preferred liquidation − Enterprise value

Data sources & cadence

  • Historical seed: CSV exports from Strategy's investor dashboard (MSTR daily, BTC daily, Purchases, Debt, STRF/STRD/STRK/STRC daily).
  • Live BTC price: CoinGecko public endpoint (no auth, refreshed by the daily job).
  • EUR/USD: frankfurter.app, daily.
  • Daily refresh: a scheduled job runs once a day to scrape Strategy's dashboard for fresh holdings, debt, and pref figures, and re-runs the formulas for the current date.

Caveats

  • Convertible debt is subtracted at face value (not market value) in the Shares Outstanding method, matching a strict liquidation interpretation.
  • The ATM-window detection uses notional changes as a proxy for sale events. The true clause is satisfied by any individual sale during the 10-day window, which we cannot observe at intraday granularity.